4. Diagram the Problem - Part 2

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Overview

In this lesson, we will design and build the complete influence diagram for our Zippy Airways case study.

Lesson Notes

More complex influence diagrams

- More complex influence diagrams are best solved in separate parts
- The first version of the model should focus on agreeing a high-level model structure
- It should be simplified and not contain any complex relationships between variables
- These relationships can be added in later iterations of the model

Case study details: Zippy Airways

Zippy Airways has been operating for 3 months out of Gatwick Airport in London and has 16 flights per day between London and four European cities.

No-overbooking policy... yet

Unlike most other airlines Zippy does not operate an overbooking policy – which allows the airline to sell more tickets than the number of seats (180) available on a flight - thereby increasing revenue. The policy relies on a certain number of customers that book a ticket but do not show up for the flight (no-shows).

No-shows

If the number of no-shows is greater than the additional tickets sold, no extra cost. If too many passengers show up, however, the airline must pay a ‘bumping cost’ to move passengers to a later flight.

Bumping costs

If a customer gets bumped to another Zippy Airways flight later that day, then Zippy will pay them on average £150 in vouchers for the inconvenience.

If a passenger is bumped from a flight that has no Zippy Airways planes later that day, she will fly home with SloMo Airways, which has an agreement with Zippy to look after all bumped passengers at a cost of £175 per passenger. The passenger still receives the voucher from Zippy.

Many of Zippy Airways passengers are business customers and would not appreciate being bumped from a flight. It may affect their decision to fly with Zippy in the future

Transcript

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